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Perfectly Measurable

An interesting new study produced in cooperation with eBay and sporting the weighty title “Consumer Heterogeneity and Paid Search Effectiveness: A Large Scale Field Experiment,” raises some interesting new questions about search engine marketing (SEM) effectiveness. The study involved eBay actually suspending various types of SEM on specific search engines, and then closely monitoring the results. The first big finding was that, at least for large companies, brand advertising via SEM (e.g. eBay buying the keyword “eBay”) was a waste of money. While it’s always good to see hard proof, at the same time, this finding strikes me as intuitively obvious. I see it all the time with big companies with strong brands: their paid ads appears directly above their organic listings. Drawn to the bold type and high positioning, consumers will often click on the paid click, enriching the search engines and yielding the advertiser a click they would have gotten anyway for free.

The second (and more controversial) finding is that SEM for non-branded keywords (i.e., products or services as opposed to company names) is also largely ineffective, because it tends to draw in far more existing customers than new customers, making SEM more of an alternate form of navigation than a true discovery mechanism. Indeed, the authors of the study go so far as to say, “Bluntly, search advertising only works if the consumer has no idea that the firm has the desired product.” In short, SEM only really works when you bring a user new information, such as the fact you sell a specific product, and the user didn’t know that information in advance.

The study is careful to limit its conclusions to large companies with big brands. And this notion of having to provide new information for SEM to prove effective would seem to be a perfect opportunity for smaller and less-known companies. Or would it?

While far less scientific, I have spoken with dozens of small B2B data publishers who have tried SEM and pronounced it a waste of money. While SEM reliably yields traffic (great if you are advertising-based), it doesn’t seem to dependably yield purchases (not so great if you are subscription-based). Yes, I know B2B is different, and site visitors often don’t purchase on their first visit. But my informal survey was of small publishers, who though they often lack sophisticated analytics, generally have a very good seat-of-the-pants sense of where their business is coming from. And for these publishers, they believe their business isn’t coming from paid search.

There’s no definitive answer here, but it does suggest we all take a much harder look at paid search efficacy, and consider the possibility we may be paying handsomely for clicks we would have gotten for free anyway.

 

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Google: Free Here; Paid There

Google may be a lot of things, but it's certainly not boring. Just this week in fact, it did several interesting revenue model back-flips, changing one product to free and making another one paid.

Let's start with Zagat. Zagat sells its content, in print and online. Not a revenue model Google knows anything about, but that didn't stop Google from snatching up Zagat for around $150 million in 2011. I predicted at the time that Google would make Zagat content free and dump in into Google Places (home of its user-generated business reviews). What happened? Google announced this week that it will make Zagat content free and dump it into Google Places. Google Places, in turn, will be dumped into Google Plus, as part of an initiative to shore up Google's faltering response to Facebook.

Google hasn't thrown away all of Zagat's revenue, at least not yet. You'll still be able to buy the print Zagat guides. Google will still charge for the Zagat iPad app. And my suspicion is that Zagat's real source of profit, gift copies of the guides imprinted with corporate logos, will continue. Make sense? If so, click here.

The biggest question for me is what happens when you mix Zagat's edited, witty, curated reviews with a much larger grab-bag of user generated reviews? Will Zagat reviews shine, or get lost in the sauce? Will people continue to submit reviews to Zagat when they can get immediate gratification (and reach the same audience) with a user-generated review? Sure, the Zagat brand is strong, but Google is sailing into uncharted waters, and I am not sensing a strong hand on the tiller.

This very same week, Google decided to rebrand its Google Product Search service as Google Shopping. And with the new name, Google decided a revenue model might be cool too. So the new Google Shopping service will be paid inclusion. Yes, Google Shopping is now a buying guide.

Charging for inclusion in the product directory (Google daintily calls this "a commercial relationship with merchants") is apparently the first time a Google-created service has gone from free to paid. Also, as you read Google's rationale for this shift, you realize that it has spent a lot of time and money to learn some basic truths about data publishing, for example:

  • Even companies that do make the effort to submit product information in structured format are lousy about keeping their information current
  • A smaller database of highly accurate data is more attractive to most users than a larger database of moderately accurate data
  • Structured data permits far more powerful and precise searching of product information

So while I have historically been at a loss to figure out what Google is doing, it's getting easier these days as Google moves ever-closer to doing everything, all at once. Just don't try this strategy at home!

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